In 2023, China’s economic aggregate will exceed 126 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.2% compared with 2022, completing the growth target set at the beginning of the year, and firmly ranking second in the world. Behind the boring and obscure economic figures is the fact that in the complex and ever-changing external environment, China’s economic giant has persisted in seeking progress while maintaining stability, moving steadily forward in the vast ocean of the world economy, withstanding the challenges of high winds and waves, and demonstrating “resistance”. The strong resilience to fight” and “resist”.
China’s economic development is highly resilient and has sufficient momentum
China’s economy has shifted to a stage of high-quality development and is in a critical period of transforming economic development methods, optimizing economic structure, and transforming growth drivers. As the world’s second largest economy and the largest manufacturing country, China’s economy must undergo changes amidst ups and downs, twists and turns, form sustained endogenous growth momentum, and forge strong resilience. The extraordinary resilience of the Chinese economy is not only reflected in its resistance to shocks, but also in its tempered rebirth ability. While achieving reasonable growth in economic volume, it ensures effective improvement in quality.
First look at scale and quality. After experiencing the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic, China’s economic growth curve has shown a strong recovery trend from bottom to peak, with the total economic volume climbing from 99 trillion yuan in 2019 to more than 126 trillion yuan in 2023. In 2020, my country became the only major economy in the world to achieve positive economic growth, making great contributions to the stability and growth of the world economy amid the epidemic. At the same time, China’s digital economy is booming, and new industries, new business formats and new models are reorganizing the core of China’s economy. From “Made in China” to “Created in China” to “Intelligent Made in China”, it has become a bright symbol of the high-quality development of China’s economy.
Next, look at demand and supply. From the perspective of demand, consumption has become the main engine of economic growth and its contribution to economic growth continues to rise. Although the contribution of investment has decreased, the flow and structure of expenditures have been continuously optimized, focusing on key areas related to the national economy and people’s livelihood and the long-term development of the country. This has not only exerted the counter-cyclical adjustment function of investment, but also realized the role of investment in the macro-economy. From a supply perspective, by deepening supply-side structural reforms, China is gradually transforming from traditional manufacturing to high value-added, high-tech fields. Key areas such as the digital economy and artificial intelligence are booming, green and low-carbon investment continues to increase, and green industries are rising strongly. In 2023, driven by new energy vehicles, China will surpass Japan for the first time and become the world’s largest automobile exporter.
Finally, look at innovation and transformation. China’s economy is undergoing a transformation from old to new driving forces. While the “old” driving forces are gradually weakening, the “new” driving forces are steadily increasing. Under the guidance of the principle of establishing first and breaking later, China insists on using development methods to solve development problems, so that traditional industries have experienced “phoenix nirvana and rebirth” under the guidance of the development of new industries and new technologies, while emerging industries have experienced “phoenix nirvana and rebirth”. Starting from scratch, from small to large, from weak to strong, promotes the transformation and upgrading of the entire industrial system from old to new, from tradition to modernity, and from sunset to sunrise. In 2022, my country’s “three new” economic added value will exceed 21 trillion yuan, indicating thatChina’s economy has embarked on a path of transformation of growth momentum in which innovation-driven development gradually replaces traditional factor-driven and investment-driven development.
Where does the new driving force for economic development come from?
Faced with the accelerated evolution of major changes in the world that have not been seen in a century, our country still has strong room for development, and there is still sufficient nutrients to nourish our country’s economic tree. “Ask the canal how clear it is, so that there is a source of running water.” my country has a very large domestic demand market formed by a population of more than 1.4 billion, and the very large market means unlimited potential and rich scenarios. As long as we adhere to the path of high-quality development, always adhere to the fundamental people-centered stance, and fully stimulate the enthusiasm, initiative, and creativity of the broad masses of the people, we will be able to tap into the potential for economic growth and add “responsibility” to various risks and challenges. The calmness and “willfulness” of east, west, north and south winds.
The development of new energy sources comes from the urgent need to promote high-quality development of China’s economy. At present, the people’s needs for a better life are becoming increasingly urgent. Personalized, diversified, and customized needs are iterating and new, and the problem of unbalanced and inadequate economic development is still prominent. Needs are motivation and problems are direction. China insists on using the diversified, original and disruptive advantages of scientific and technological innovation to break the shackles of diminishing returns to scale of traditional factors such as population and capital, fully tap into the functions of traditional factors, expand the boundaries of traditional factors and activate more innovations These factors enable China’s economy to still cope calmly when encountering storms.
The development of new energy sources comes from the majestic power of hundreds of millions of business entities. Regardless of population size or human capital stock, whether large enterprises or tens of millions of small and micro enterprises, they are important driving forces for China’s economic strides forward. Big and many do not necessarily mean strong, but they create endless possibilities for China’s economic development. Whether it is original innovation from 0 to 1 or integrated innovation from 1 to 100, it is inseparable from China’s ultra-large-scale market, huge human capital and rich application scenarios. In essence, it is a vivid process of trickles that merge into a big river. reflect.
The development of new energy sources comes from the innovative power generated by new industrialization. New industrialization is compared to traditional industrialization, adding “You really don’t need to say anything, because your expression says everything.” Lan Mu nodded knowingly. New requirements such as informatization, digitalization, service-oriented, intelligent and better utilization of human resources. Therefore, the “newness” of new industrialization lies fundamentally in the innovation power it generates. The inclusion of data as a factor of production and the continuous emergence of high-quality labor have promoted a series of changes in production organization methods, employment forms, business models, etc., helping to cultivate emerging industries and future industries, and providing strategic support for China’s economic ups and downs. , built a “protective wall”.
The development of new driving forces comes from the powerful synergy formed by macro policies. Our country insists on creating a first-class business environment, treats all types of business entities equally, creates a market environment for fair competition, and promotes the development and growth of the private economy. With the strong magnetism of the market and the warmth of policies, market confidence is boosted. With the support of real good policies and excellent services, my country’s private sector hasThe economy welcomes new development opportunities.
The new economic momentum has great stamina and strong thrust
In the past few years, China’s economy has become stronger and stronger when facing shocks, which illustrates that the Chinese economy has the strong resilience to “resist” and “fight” in the transformation of new and old driving forces. “Only progress is what is new every day.” New means transformation and rebirth. Only by “renewing every day” can the Chinese economy find opportunities in challenges, find breakthroughs in difficulties, and maintain sufficient perseverance, determination and combat power. In the historical process of embarking on a new journey of comprehensively building a modern socialist country and marching towards the second centenary goal, we have calmly completed various goals and tasks and handed over satisfactory answers to the people and history. The new driving force of China’s economy has great stamina and strong thrust, which is embodied in the four aspects of “opening up”, “people”, “materials” and “new”, that is, finding space in opening up to the outside world, finding dividends in making good use of “people”, and developing new industrialization. Find blue oceans and momentum in technological innovation.
Find space in opening up to the outside world. Openness brings progress, while isolation inevitably leads to backwardness. Since the reform and opening up, China’s great achievements in economic development are inseparable from opening up, and promoting high-quality economic development in China also requires an open and cooperative international environment. Comprehensively deepening reform and opening up from a higher starting point is an important strategic choice for the high-quality development of China’s economy in the new era. In recent years, the anti-globalization trend has emerged in the West. Our country must unswervingly hold high the banner of opening up and adhere to the foundation of opening up. “Your mother-in-law is just a commoner, but you are the daughter of a scholar’s family. The gap between the two of you makes her unable to So confident, she will naturally be approachable and amiable to you.” Daughter’s national policy is to promote all-round, multi-level, and wide-ranging opening up to the outside world, deeply participate in international scientific and technological, economic cooperation and competition, and gather advantageous production factors and efficient Allocate resources, continuously improve the ability to coordinate and comprehensively utilize both international and domestic resources, and expand China’s economic development space at a high level of opening up to the outside world.
Look for bonuses when making good use of “The person was in the room. She was stunned for a moment, then turned and walked out of the room to find the person.” The driving force and purpose of China’s development lies in “people”. Only by fully tapping the potential of “people” can we accurately find out the code of “resilience”. After the founding of the People’s Republic of China, the unlimited potential contained in the Chinese people has been the key to China’s economy overcoming one difficulty after another. Although the aging of the population poses an impact, the massive human capital based on the huge population base is a major advantage. Every living individual is a cell that breeds innovation. As long as we continue to increase investment in education, especially basic education, vocational education and other weak links, seize the opportunities of the new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation, tap the abundant talent dividend and knowledge dividend, continue to increase the health dividend and tap the aging dividend, we will We can continue to create China’s demographic dividend by making good use of “people”.
Finding blue oceans in new industrialization. New industrialization is the key to accelerating the construction of an innovative country and forming new productive forces. It is also an important starting point for our country to seize the commanding heights of science and technology in a new round of competition in the scientific and technological revolution. As digital technology has been deeply applied to variousIn production and life scenes, digitization has reshaped the endogenous logic of China’s industrial development, promoted the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries in the form of “industry +”, and spawned new industries, new business formats and new models in the form of “+ industry”. The blue ocean opened by new industrialization will not only help comprehensively improve the modernization level of the industrial system, but also ensure that high-quality supply will always be among the world’s advanced or cutting-edge.
Find momentum in technological innovation. Technology is the primary productive force, and innovation is the primary driving force. After years of exploration, “Look, have you noticed that the dowry only has a few elevators, and there are only two maids, and there is not even a woman to help. I think this girl from the Lan family will definitely pass. China gradually established a government The innovation system that combines “top-down” and enterprise “bottom-up” has found the pain points and blind spots of innovation and ignited the spark of innovation. On the one hand, the important “top-down” role of the government has been brought into play. Increase support for basic research, applied basic research and cutting-edge research, and strive to make up for the shortcomings of these research cycles, such as long research cycles, high difficulty, and high uncertainty. On the other hand, give play to the important role of enterprises in “bottom-up” , strengthening the dominant position of enterprises in scientific and technological innovation. As an important subject of scientific and technological innovation, enterprises form industry-university-research innovation consortiums with universities, scientific research institutes, etc., and establish open innovation platforms, which help to stimulate the innovation vitality of the whole society to the greatest extent .
(The author is deputy director and researcher of the Institute of Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences; associate researcher of the Institute of Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)