At present, the Chinese economy is facing new difficult challenges from both domestic and international sources. It is particularly important to strategically understand the historical opportunities for China’s development. With the intensification of the global climate change crisis and the continuous breakthroughs in big data and artificial intelligence technologies, human society is experiencing the most profound development paradigm shift since the Industrial Revolution. Since the reform and opening up, China has learned to catch up with developed countries under the traditional industrialization model and created an economic growth miracle for more than 40 years. The comprehensive green transformation of economic and social development has provided China with a historical opportunity to “change lanes and overtake”. China is expected to continue to unleash the huge potential of green development and create new growth miracles by deepening reforms.
China has its own advantages in promoting green transformation
After the Industrial Revolution, Western developed countries took the lead in realizing their own modernization through the traditional industrialization model. For a long time, the concept of modernization has been mainly based on the development model of Western developed countries. While this modernization model has brought about a huge leap in material productivity, it has also brought about a global ecological and environmental crisis. China’s reform and opening up has created an unprecedented development miracle in human history, but this miracle is based more on the traditional industrialization model. We should transcend the development model at the expense of the ecological environment and create new momentum for China’s development.
The global consensus and actions on carbon neutrality mark the end of the traditional industrial era and the advent of a new era of green development. So, can China achieve “changing lanes and overtaking” through green transformation and create new development miracles with Chinese-style modernization? Bingbing did not expect that the latch of the main door had been opened, indicating that someone was out. So, is she going out to find someone now? , realize the transformation from “learning from the West” to “leading the world”? Just take new energy vehicles as an example. If China follows the traditional development path of the automobile industry, it will be difficult for China to catch up with the Western automobile industry, which has a history of hundreds of years. However, it is currently “changing lanes and overtaking” in the field of new energy vehicles. Since 2015, China has become the world’s largest new energy vehicle market, accounting for about half of the world’s annual production, sales and cumulative ownership in recent years. Since 2021, against the backdrop of China’s slowing economic growth, new energy vehicles have experienced a “blowout” growth. At the same time, China has become a global leader in renewable energy. In 2023, the world’s newly installed renewable energy capacity will be 510 million kilowatts, with China’s contribution exceeding 50%. It is expected that by 2028, China’s renewable energy power generation will account for 60% of the world’s power generation.
The concept and vision of green development and the promotion of comprehensive green transformation of economic and social development have become the key to China’s shift to green development. In terms of promoting green and low-carbon development, China has unique advantages, including the complete, accurate and comprehensive implementation of new development concepts, the government’s strong executive power, the stability and continuity of macro policies, the construction of a unified large market, a complete industrial system and strong supporting capabilities, etc. . In contrast, Western developed countries have their own advantages in promoting green transformation, but they all have obvious shortcomings. There is no general consensus on climate change and green transition in the United States.Nor can it guarantee the stability and continuity of its macro policies. U.S. climate policy often changes with the rotation of political parties, which not only makes it difficult to form stable market expectations and green investments domestically, but also has a certain negative impact on the global response to climate change. Although the EU has the motivation to shift to green development, its fragmented consumer market, diversified policy arrangements and institutional barriers make it difficult to adapt to the requirements of green transformation.
To understand green transformation, we should break away from traditional thinking
How to understand and deal with the changes in development paradigm is the key to seizing historical opportunities. Based on different perspectives and ways of thinking, the content you see is very different. To understand the historical opportunities facing China’s economic development, we need to break away from traditional industrialization thinking. Whether green transformation is a burden or an opportunity for economic growth depends largely on the perspective and way of thinking. Now, our country is in a transition period where the old and new models are alternating. If we look back at the green transformation from the old model, we will see challenges and resistance; if we look forward from the new model, we will see opportunities and motivation. In many cases, green development is a discontinuous transition from “nothing to something”. The evolution of division of labor will drive costs down rapidly. Any new product is a high-priced luxury product at first, but as the division of labor evolves, the cost will continue to decrease. In the past decade or so, the production cost of new energy vehicles in China has dropped significantly. This is a typical example. Although the current overall profitability level of my country’s new energy vehicle companies is not high, this is only an inevitable stage in the industry’s growth process and will continue to improve with the evolution of division of labor and specialization. In addition, after China officially proposed its carbon neutrality goal in 2020, widespread market expectations for promoting green and low-carbon development gradually formed. “Sister Hua!” Xi Shixun couldn’t help but shout, and he was shocked by surprise and excitement. What she meant was to tell him that as long as she could stay by his side, there would be no need for it at all. This created a lot of demand for green transformation and investment opportunities. This green transformation process from scratch requires breaking the “chicken-and-egg” cycle, that is, “without green evidence, there will be no green action, and without green action, there will be no green evidence.” If this possible green transition cannot be foreseen, it will be difficult to take green investment actions, and it will be difficult for a green transformation to occur. On the contrary, if the foresight and vision for green transformation are formed, green investment actions will be taken, and green transformation will really occur.
Recognizing the development opportunities brought by green transformation is only a prerequisite for seizing the opportunities. To turn this opportunity into reality and realize the transition from the traditional growth path to the green growth path, the following major obstacles need to be overcome.
First, the macro policies under the traditional industrialization model are no longer suitable for the new development model. The transformation of the development paradigm means profound changes in the content and structure of both supply and demand sides. When traditional effective demand is insufficient, new green demand cannot be met by the old supply structure. In this way, macro policies need to focus on creating new green supply and demand.
The second is systemic transformation and path dependence under the traditional development model. Green transformation is not just a breakthrough in individual products and technologies, but requires a systemic transformation of the entire economy. It is often difficult for individual companies to drive transformation in industrial ecosystems. This means that the government should play a more coordinating and promoting role in the green transformation.
Third, many existing institutional mechanisms and policy systems were established under the traditional industrialization model and old development concepts, and are difficult to meet the inherent requirements of green transformation. These reforms often involve some deeper and more complex institutional issues.
The fourth is the issue of transition risks and fair transition. Green transformation is a process of “creative destruction”. Only by compensating the interests of those affected departments, regions and groups of people can the transformation be just and the resistance to transformation reduced. However, because much of the existing economic structure was formed under the traditional industrialization model, it is not conducive to promoting the green and low-carbon development of traditional sectors.
The fifth is market conditions such as business model transformation. For business models oriented toward green transformation, profound changes have occurred in their value creation direction, corporate organization model, business model, market structure, etc., and many traditional business models are no longer effective.
Taking multiple measures to support China’s green and low-carbon development
The comprehensive green transformation of economic and social development has provided China with new historical opportunities. China also has unique advantages in promoting green and low-carbon development. However, whether the huge potential of green development can be transformed into reality depends on whether the above difficulties can be effectively solved. overcome. In particular, how to better play the role of the government and create conditions for the market to fully play its decisive role in resource allocation has become the key to whether China can create a new development miracle.
First, the most important thing is to form stable market expectations. Through the government’s commitment to its commitments, market-oriented reforms, landmark policies, strict environmental regulations and other measures, we will effectively enhance the firm confidence of investors, entrepreneurs, and consumers in the bright prospects of China’s economy and green transformation and development, and promote the formation of stable market expectations.
Second, provide strong policy support for green transformation, including proposing green vision and expectations, advocating green consumption culture and values, supporting green industries, strengthening green infrastructure construction, and increasing the supply of high-quality public services. Redefine the functions of the market and government from the perspective of transformation of development paradigms and civilization forms.
Third, by deepening the reform of “delegating power, delegating power, delegating power, delegating power, delegating power and optimizing services”, we will give full play to the decisive role of the market in resource allocation. Under the premise that the government sets “traffic lights” on capital, the decisive role of the market will be maximized. Completely, accurately and comprehensively implement the new development concept and fully unleash the infinite vitality of the market, localities and entrepreneurs.
Hearing this, Lan Yuhua couldn’t help but look unnatural, then lowered her eyes, looked at her nose, and her nose looked at her heart. Fourth, focus on improving independent innovation capabilities and deepen the reform of science and technology systems and mechanisms. green transformationAll countries are new, and late-developing countries no longer have the same objects to learn from and imitate as they did in the past. This poses an unprecedented challenge to China’s independent innovation capabilities. Only those countries with high independent innovation capabilities can create new advantages in international competition in the green transformation.
Fifth, adhere to a high level of opening up to the outside world. Faced with the “decoupling and disconnection” and “high walls” practices of some countries, China must adhere to the higher realm and larger pattern of building a community with a shared future for mankind, firmly pursue a mutually beneficial and win-win opening strategy, and continue to take China’s new development as the basis. The world provides new opportunities and promotes the construction of an open world economy.
(This article is a phased result of the major innovation project of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences “Research on the Core Theoretical Foundation of the Independent Knowledge System of Ecological Civilization and its Policy Implications”)
(The author is the director and researcher of the Institute of Ecological Civilization, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)