Wang Changlin
Recently, there has been a wave of pessimistic views on the international community that “badmouth China’s economy”, believing that “China has fallen into a balance sheet recession”, “the demographic dividend has disappeared” and “China has been dead for many years, but she is still hurt by it.” The economy has reached its peak” and so on. In this regard, we need a comprehensive and objective dialectical understanding. Needless to say, China is currently facing a complex economic situation, but this does not mean that the Chinese economy will decline. On the contrary, China’s economy is rebounding and its development prospects are bright. This has profound historical logic, theoretical logic and practical logic.
History is the best textbook
Since the reform and opening up, there have been several upsurges in the international public opinion field to “speak ill of China’s economy.” Looking at it now, its arguments are wrong.
For example, in the late 1980s and early 1990s, China’s economic development faced a severe situation. Internationally, drastic changes occurred in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union, and international socialism was at a low ebb; the domestic economy was in an adjustment period of governance and rectification, and coupled with the impact of Western countries’ “economic sanctions” on my country, my country’s economic growth rate was only 4.2% in 1989 and 1990. and 3.9%. Against this background, some remarks about “China’s economic collapse” are rampant in the world. The fact is that as Deng Xiaoping’s Southern Speech and the 14th National Congress of the Communist Party of China established the goal of reforming the socialist market economic system, China’s economy has maintained rapid growth for a long time. From 1991 to 1995, the GDP grew at an average annual rate of 12.3%, and the five-year growth rates were respectively are 9.3%, 14.2%, 13.9%, 13.0%, and 11%.
Another example is that from 1997 to 2001, the situation facing China’s economic development underwent major changes. Internationally, the Asian financial crisis broke out in February 1997. At the same time, the scientific and technological revolution represented by information technology advanced by leaps and bounds, and economic globalization developed rapidly. Domestically, my country’s commodity supply and demand pattern changed from chronic shortage to overall oversupply. The problem of overcapacity is prominent, prices are running at low levels, and economic growth is declining. In this context, some foreign economists have once again put forward the “China’s economic collapse theory.” The fact is that in response to the situation of insufficient domestic demand, declining external demand, and weak economic growth at that time, the Party Central Committee decisively implemented the policy of expanding domestic demand, and at the same time took effective measures to promote the reform of state-owned enterprises, government agencies, financial systems, housing systems, fiscal and taxation systems, etc. Actively join the World Trade Organization. With the combined effect of deepening reform, expanding opening up, and macroeconomic policy control, my country not only withstood the impact of the financial crisis and prevented the decline in economic growth, but also entered a cycle of rapid economic growth after 2000. From 2001 to 2005, the GDP grew by 8.3%, 9.1%, 10%, 10.1% and 11.4% respectively, with the five-year average growth of 9.8%. In particular, the open economy has developed rapidly, with the total import and export volume growing at an average annual rate of 24.6% from 2001 to 2005. The substantial growth in foreign investment has effectively promoted domestic economic development.
Another example, 200Seven years later, affected by the international financial crisis, China’s economy faced greater downward pressure, and its GDP growth rate dropped from 12.7% in 2006 and 14.2% in 2007 to 9.7% in 2008. In this context, some foreign scholars believe that China’s economy will decline. For example, Nobel Prize winner Paul Krugman published an article in the New York Times titled “Will China Collapse?” “(Will China break?), believed that China’s manufacturing development model that relied too much on exports at that time would be impacted, and the bursting of the real estate bubble would further lead to economic collapse. The fact is that the Chinese government has effectively resolved the impact of the international financial crisis by implementing proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, and the economy has maintained stable and rapid growth. In 2010, China’s domestic production head. “With a value of more than 40 trillion yuan, it has become the world’s second largest economy and the largest manufacturing country; opening up to the outside world has reached a new level. From 2006 to 2010, the total import and export volume increased at an average annual rate of 15.9%, and in 2010 it became the world’s largest economy. A big country in the trade of goods.
For another example, after 2010, my mother-in-law and daughter-in-law looked at each other, stopped, turned around and looked at the front door of the hospital. I saw two nurses, Wang Da and Lin Li, also appearing outside the front door, staring at the door. Appearing at the end of the road has led to changes in economic development conditions such as my country’s labor force. Coupled with the continued impact of the international financial crisis and the subsequent European sovereign debt crisis, my country’s economic development has entered a new normal. Around 2015, my country’s economic performance has experienced “four declines and one rise.” “situation. Against this background, there are once again voices in the international community that “speak ill of China’s economy”, believing that China’s economy will face stagnant growth or even an economic crisis. The fact is that in response to the situation at that time, the Party Central Committee made timely major decisions and arrangements to promote supply-side structural reform, and adopted measures such as “three reductions, one reduction, and one supplement” and “break, establish, and reduce” to promote economic stabilization and recovery, and the economy Development has entered the track of high-quality development, and the results of supply-side structural reform have been widely recognized and positively evaluated both at home and abroad.
Those who “talk bad words” have misunderstandings
Why do those who “badmouth the Chinese economy” make mistakes again and again? The reason lies in its cognitive bias and misunderstanding about the strong resilience and development laws of China’s economy.
First, simply use Western theories to analyze and judge China’s economic development prospects. Western economic theory is mainly a summary of the practical development experience of Western developed countries, which has certain reference significance. However, it is not a “golden rule” that is universally applicable, and it cannot be simply copied to developing countries, especially those in a situation like China. A large economy in transition and development. It cannot be concluded that as long as the problems experienced by developed countries arise in economic development, economic recession and other phenomena will inevitably occur. Historical experience has proven many times that Western economic theories cannot be deified. Many developing countries simply apply mechanical theories without taking into account their own national conditions. This has not resulted in successful economic development and has even been counterproductive. Some countries have also fallen into economic stagnation and political turmoil for a long time. China has always insisted onWe have followed the path of socialism with Chinese characteristics, adhered to the direction of reforming the socialist market economic system, promoted Chinese-style modernization, and achieved great achievements that have attracted worldwide attention. The great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation has shown bright prospects.
The second is to overexaggerate short-term and local problems and underestimate the resilience of China’s economic development. When looking at the economic situation, we must look at development and operation. We must look at both the short term and the long term; we must look at both the local and the overall situation. We cannot simply apply past experience to China, nor can we use a “microscope” or “myopia” to see the problems and risks in China’s economy. In fact, looking back now, many problems have far less impact on China’s economy than imagined at the time. The reason is that China is a large economy, the socialist system with Chinese characteristics has unique advantages in dealing with major risks and challenges, and China’s economic development is generally still on the rise. Therefore, China’s economy has a strong ability to withstand shocks, self-stabilize, and self-repair. After encountering a shock, short-term adjustments are inevitable, but it can always continue to open up new development space afterwards.
Third, there is insufficient research on China’s economic development, and some have subjective bias or narrow self-interest. Chinese-style modernization not only has the common characteristics of the modernization of all countries, but also has Chinese characteristics based on its own national conditions. Therefore, analyzing and studying China’s economy requires combining economic laws with China’s national conditions and development stage. However, some pessimists lack comprehensive and in-depth research on the Chinese economy, and some scholars even rarely come to China. For example, Krugman issued a statement in 2015, saying, “I am not an expert on China, and a lot of what I say is based on what others say.” In addition, there are still some “badmouthing” people who do it to gain attention and traffic, and some people even use “badmouthing China” to make profits in the capital market.
The long-term positive trend of China’s economy will not change
Currently, our country’s economy is entering a critical period of transition to high-quality development. In this process, we will inevitably encounter various problems and challenges, and even experience necessary pains. However, China’s economic development has confidence, advantages and opportunities, and its long-term positive trend will not change.
First, the fundamentals of economic development are stable and new driving forces continue to develop and grow. After more than 70 years of rapid development since the founding of the People’s Republic of China, especially more than 40 years of reform and opening up, our country has accumulated a huge material and technological foundation, and the domestic market demand is huge, which has provided solid support for our country to maintain steady economic growth and cope with risks and challenges. For example, the current number of cars in our country reaches 336 million. If calculated at 10% annual update, the market size will exceed 30 million. From the perspective of housing demand, although the issue of whether residents have housing has been basically solved, the question of whether it is good or not has not yet been completely solved. The demand for rigid and improved housing still has great potential for development. Developed economies such as the United States, Japan, and the Eurozone have completed urbanization, but their per capita residential consumption expenditures still account for more than 30% of household consumption expenditures, while my country currently only accounts for about 25%. From the perspective of technological innovation,Although some countries continue to increase their efforts to contain my country’s high-tech industries and promote “decoupling” and “breaking links”, it is difficult to stop my country’s technological innovation and industrial upgrading. In fact, judging from historical experience, innovation is largely forced. The suppression of Chinese technology companies by some countries will actually accelerate the pace of independent innovation in my country. In 2022, my country’s R&D expenditure will be 3.08 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.11%, accounting for 2.5% of GDP, close to the average level of OECD countries. At the same time, my country’s industrial transformation and upgrading has been solidly advanced, strategic emerging industries have continued to develop and grow, and it has become a world leader in new tracks such as the digital economy and green and low-carbon economy.
Second, the comprehensive advantages in human resources, capital formation, infrastructure, and industrial systems are outstanding, and the economic development potential is huge. Although major changes in the total population size and structure will have a certain impact on economic growth. However, it should be noted that compared with population size, the key factor affecting medium- and long-term economic growth is population quality. In 2023, my country’s working-age population aged 16-59 will still be 865 million, of which more than 240 million will receive higher education. From an investment perspective, my country’s savings rate will still be at a high level in 2023, with great investment potential. In addition, after years of development, my country has formed a relatively complete and ultra-large-scale infrastructure network. The comprehensive transportation network, power generation installed capacity, power grid, 5G network and other scales all rank first in the world. At the same time, it has built a large-scale, complete system and strong supporting capabilities. industrial system. According to calculations by many domestic and foreign research institutions, under the baseline scenario, my country’s potential economic growth rate during the “15th Five-Year Plan” period is about 4.5%, and during the “16th Five-Year Plan” period it is around 4.0%; During the “Fifth Five-Year Plan” and “Sixteenth Five-Year Plan” periods, it can reach 4.8% and 4.3% respectively, and socialist modernization can be basically achieved by 2035.
Third, facing new strategic opportunities, there is broad space for the development of new industrialization and new urbanization. First, the rapid development of a new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation has brought new opportunities. At present, a new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation represented by artificial intelligence, life sciences, new energy, etc. have entered a period of breakthrough development. Digital, intelligent, and green transformation are advancing in depth, which will enable our country to leverage its advantages, develop new productive forces, and Improving total factor productivity and promoting high-quality economic development provide major strategic opportunities. Historical experience has repeatedly proved that in all previous scientific and technological revolutions and industrial revolutions, there are always some countries that seize opportunities, catch up from behind, and achieve leapfrog development. Second, the upgrading of demand structure brings new opportunities. During the “15th Five-Year Plan” period, our country will historically move into a high-income country, and the middle-income group is expected to exceed 500 million people. With the continuous improvement of residents’ income levels and the continuous improvement of the social security system, the people’s demand for high-quality products and services will continue to increase, and service industries such as education, medical care, culture, tourism, and elderly care will develop rapidly. Third, urban transformation and development bring new opportunities. In 2023, my country’s urbanization rate will be 66.16%, which is 10% lower than that of developed countries.The level is still more than 10 percentage points different. At the same time, there is great potential to improve the quality of urbanization development. In 2023, the urbanization rate of my country’s registered population will be only 47.7%. There are nearly 300 million agricultural migrant workers working and doing business in cities and towns who have not yet become citizens. According to relevant research by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, if these people have urban household registration and enjoy the same basic public services as urban residents, and are versatile, it is a blessing for anyone to marry Sansheng, and only a fool will not accept it. “The actual consumption level will increase by about 30%. In addition, changes in the global governance system and green and low-carbon transformation will also bring new opportunities to my country’s economic development.
Of course, it should be noted that my country’s economic development is still facing new difficulties and challenges. But this is a problem that arises in development and is a “pain” of growth, while the mainstream and general trend of economic development have not changed. History and reality have proved that China’s economy has always grown in the face of wind and rain and moved forward amidst hardships. Strong external pressure will surely stimulate strong momentum for China’s economic transformation and development. As long as we give full play to our own advantages, face up to difficult problems, and focus on deepening reform and opening up, China will continue to create new miracles of economic development, and the Chinese nation will move towards great rejuvenation at an unstoppable pace.
(Author’s unit: Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)